FedEx warns of pain ahead with tariffs weighing on demand

The company’s shares fell 5.6% as of 9:33 a.m. in New York on Wednesday after FedEx reported quarterly results, extending their slide for the year. The shipping giant’s stock was down 18% in 2025 through Tuesday’s close, while the S&P 500 index rose modestly over that span.

Although it typically provides a full-year forecast, FedEx said it would only share its outlook for the current quarter due to the “uncertain global demand environment.” The forecast assumes no further negative developments in global trade dynamics.

“We just simply cannot predict how that is going to play out,” FedEx Chief Customer Officer Brie Carere said on the company’s earnings call.

Adjusted earnings in the fiscal first quarter will be $3.40 to $4 a share, the company said late Tuesday. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had projected $4.03 on average.

US-China shipments — the company’s most profitable trade route — “deteriorated sharply” in May and volumes are expected to remain under pressure, Carere said.

Trump’s erratic trade policies continue to handcuff the ability of executives to predict where their businesses are headed. That lack of visibility is especially challenging for FedEx — an economic bellwether — since its customers include a broad swath of industries, from manufacturing to consumer goods.

Investors were concerned “after management did not provide an initial full-year outlook for the only time over the last 13 years,” JPMorgan analyst Brian Ossenbeck said in a note.

Morgan Stanley and Jefferies analysts also said withholding guidance spooked Wall Street.

Soft Demand

Analysts had already reduced their 2026 profit estimates for FedEx in recent months, worried that weakening consumer confidence and soft industrial demand would overshadow the company’s efforts to slash costs and revamp its delivery network.

It’s hard to see profit growing this year “unless there is an overwhelming upcycle,” Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker said in a client note.

Still, there are signs that the company’s long-running push to reduce expenses and combine FedEx’s ground and air shipping networks into a single operation is paying off. The company achieved its goal of cutting $2.2 billion in costs during its most recent fiscal year and expects an additional $1 billion in savings this year.

Adjusted earnings were $6.07 a share in the fourth quarter, topping the $5.81 average of analyst estimates. Higher U.S. and international export volumes, price increases and cost reductions provided a boost, while the expiration of its U.S. Postal Service contract along with higher transportation and wage expenses weighed on results, the company said.

The earnings report comes just days after the death of Fred Smith, FedEx’s iconic founder who revolutionized the parcel shipping business by introducing next-day air service after he started the company in 1971.